Bank foresees MSCI Hong Kong Index rising 8–25 % as improved valuations, earnings recovery and policy support fuel investor confidence
JPMorgan has projected a strong rebound for Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets in 2026, expressing optimism that recent gains could extend into the new year with up to nearly twenty-percent upside.
The bank’s analysts argue that valuations remain attractive, and ongoing economic recovery, supportive policy measures, and stabilising property-market dynamics should collectively underpin further share-price growth.
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According to the forecast, the MSCI Hong Kong Index — a benchmark for large- and mid-cap listed firms — could reach between 14,366 and 16,679 points by end-2026, representing an 8–25 % increase from current levels.
This outlook assumes underlying earnings growth of about six percent for 2025 and nine percent for 2026, reflecting a rebound in corporate profitability across sectors.
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JPMorgan’s cautiously optimistic forecast is reinforced by fresh assessments from HSBC Asset Management and UBS, which expect Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities to maintain a recovery trajectory in 2026. They cite a combination of improved fundamentals, easing deflationary pressures and continued policy support.
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Market sentiment has indeed improved markedly.
After enduring several challenging years, Hong Kong stocks recouped ground in 2024 — and this year’s rally has reinforced hopes that the region may regain its status among Asia’s top equity markets.
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Still, analysts warn that 2026 may not be free of headwinds.
Potential risks include rising regional interest rates, lingering pressures in the property sector, and geopolitical uncertainties which could dampen investor appetite.
:contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}
For now, the case for continued gains appears compelling: attractive valuations, positive earnings forecasts and supportive policy measures combine to keep Hong Kong and Chinese equities on a robust growth path as markets look toward 2026 with renewed optimism.
The bank’s analysts argue that valuations remain attractive, and ongoing economic recovery, supportive policy measures, and stabilising property-market dynamics should collectively underpin further share-price growth.
:contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
According to the forecast, the MSCI Hong Kong Index — a benchmark for large- and mid-cap listed firms — could reach between 14,366 and 16,679 points by end-2026, representing an 8–25 % increase from current levels.
This outlook assumes underlying earnings growth of about six percent for 2025 and nine percent for 2026, reflecting a rebound in corporate profitability across sectors.
:contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
JPMorgan’s cautiously optimistic forecast is reinforced by fresh assessments from HSBC Asset Management and UBS, which expect Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities to maintain a recovery trajectory in 2026. They cite a combination of improved fundamentals, easing deflationary pressures and continued policy support.
:contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}
Market sentiment has indeed improved markedly.
After enduring several challenging years, Hong Kong stocks recouped ground in 2024 — and this year’s rally has reinforced hopes that the region may regain its status among Asia’s top equity markets.
:contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}
Still, analysts warn that 2026 may not be free of headwinds.
Potential risks include rising regional interest rates, lingering pressures in the property sector, and geopolitical uncertainties which could dampen investor appetite.
:contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}
For now, the case for continued gains appears compelling: attractive valuations, positive earnings forecasts and supportive policy measures combine to keep Hong Kong and Chinese equities on a robust growth path as markets look toward 2026 with renewed optimism.










































